The new group stage
I know I took the piss out of Scotland a bit the other day, but they didn't deserve the death of a thousand cuts that the new tournament structure inflicted on them. The BBC had been calculating the odds on them getting through as a wild card all week, and by Saturday afternoon they reckoned it was down to 0.07%. You might think that was an improvement on the odds they started with two weeks ago, but immediately after they lost to Brazil their chances were estimated at 43%. This figure steadily fell as the days went by and one result after another went the wrong way from their point of view. South Africa, having looked like they couldn't find the goal if they were tethered to it, managed a completely unexpected victory over South Korea which left both teams better placed than Scotland. Ecuador did the same to Germany, a frankly astonishing result that took away another Scottish chance. All week this went on, until finally last night Croatia beat Ghana by less than the required ...